Take, for example, the collapse of the Soviet Union. Such a pivotal moment in history! Reagan and Gorbachev were amazing personalities, and the choices they made changed the course of the world. The air sparked with excitement - finally, we didn't need to worry about a nuclear holocaust! People laughed about the bomb shelters that had been built in the 50's. Whew, no need for those anymore! And yet, I was pessimistic. "Where will their weapons go?" I asked. Sure, the USSR had nukes, but mutually assured destruction (MAD) kept both nations in check. Nobody could answer this question. "Well . . . I think they're going to stay in Russia. Most of them, at least," was the best answer I received. The nuclear weapons once owned by the United Soviet Socialist Republic continue to be sought, as they are being sold on the black market in the Middle East.
I was also pessimistic about the war in Iraq. So much uncertainty surrounded this situation that we had no choice but to assume our President and his advisors were operating under the direction of sound and accurate intelligence, but I was scratching my head for reasons other than what most of the nay-sayers had. "If they don't have the weapons, we're a bully; if they do, we're toast," was all I could think of to say. I realize that war is a necessary evil, and I'm familiar with Clausewitz's teachings that advocate a pre-emptive strike. However, the United States had never initiated a war with nuclear weapons involved.
And now, once again, I'm feeling pessimistic. Thankfully, it has nothing to do with weapons this time around. The US economy. I'm no economist, and I have no inside track to information, so I could be wrong in my thinking. I truly hope that I am! Even so, I find myself observing aspects to the economic recovery that I have not heard discussed on the news, and regrettably, all of these aspects are negative indicators. So I'm going to discuss them, and you can create your own opinions.
The US is currently in two wars. Traditionally, a war boosts our economy for two reasons. The first reason is that it creates jobs to manufacture weapons and bullets. The second reason is that with the soldiers away at war, other people need to fill their places (often temporarily) at their jobs. The end result is that during a war, unemployment is usually very low. Jobs are abundant and the people wanting to take those jobs are few. Right now, the US is not in one war - we're in *two* wars. Our economy is actually elevated over what it would otherwise be.
The current distribution of population is stacked against economic growth. Granted, if the baby-boomers had also had several children apiece, the United States would be suffering some severe population issues, so this might be a blessing in disguise. But even so, the question nags at the back of my mind - how will they be supported? The companies that provide their pensions are struggling to float and the buyers, which provide the revenue for corporations, have been laid off. Who will financially support the elderly, and how?
The average lifespan is increasing. With the aid of modern medicine, the children born now can expect to live to approximately age 100, assuming they do not die an accidental death. If our culture remains as it is today, this means that the least productive and most expensive portion of our lives has been substantially lengthened. In other words, people need to be doing much better retirement planning than we currently do, else we will outlive our money.
Taxes support our government, and employed people pay the taxes. With such a high unemployment rate, what happens to our government? "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" spoken in Reagan's strong tones was the most powerful political speech I've ever heard. It brought tears to my eyes. But it actually didn't bring down the Soviet Union or any of their satellite nations. What destroyed the USSR was their flailing economy. They collapsed from the inside. Their government spent so much to maintain its military that nothing was left over to run the country. History can, and does, repeat itself, and the US needs taxpayers in order to maintain a well-functioning government. The indigent don't pay taxes because they earn too little to be taxed. The wealthy are well-versed in how to use tax shelters. The middle class generally pay the highest percentage of taxes to their overall worth, and the middle class is shrinking. Unless the wealthy want to shoulder the full responsibility of supporting the government, they need to help bring the middle class back into balance.
Megalithic corporations have traditionally used connections and donations to promote their interests through politics, however these same corporations do not necessarily concern themselves with the well-being of the United States. Why should they? They aren't making policy, they're making money. If they go all bleeding-heart, they make a lot less of it and nobody has a retirement account. Regrettably, many of their policies have been alarmingly short-sighted. By sending manufacturing overseas, they made money in the short-term because they found a less expensive way to manufacture their goods. However, they lost money in the long-run, because they now can't find people to buy those same goods.
At this point, the stock market is recovering, but this doesn't mean the same thing it meant ten years ago. Ten years ago, this meant that the United States was thriving. At this point, the labor and the markets have been exported. So a strong stock market indicates that the corporations are getting a bit of color back in their cheeks, but that speaks more for the global economy than it does for the US economy. Do I want people everywhere to do well? Sure! But the shift has been so sudden that the people in the Unites States don't know how to compensate. That needs to be addressed.
At this point, the stock market is recovering, but this doesn't mean the same thing it meant ten years ago. Ten years ago, this meant that the United States was thriving. At this point, the labor and the markets have been exported. So a strong stock market indicates that the corporations are getting a bit of color back in their cheeks, but that speaks more for the global economy than it does for the US economy. Do I want people everywhere to do well? Sure! But the shift has been so sudden that the people in the Unites States don't know how to compensate. That needs to be addressed.
I have some ideas for ways we can help ourselves, the global economy, and the United States of America, and I'd like to hear yours. Unfortunately, we can't turn back time or wave a wand to generate a quick fix. The resolutions I see would require all sides of this situation to change priorities and to work together more peacefully. While I question if this is possible, I don't want today's post to be one of doom. I'm calling attention to some problems so that we can define our hopes, identify ways to overcome the challenges we face, and take action. We, the people, have many walls to tear down, and the restructuring needs to come from the inside.
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